Forecast of transport development in world tourism. Forecasts and prospects for the development of world tourism. Assessment of the market by its participants, average indicators

Expert opinion on tourism development. The future of tourism. Expert forecast on the prospects for tourism development.

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Tourism of the third millennium

Tourism will never be the same again. Small cozy travel agencies, as well as microscopic boutique hotels with ten rooms, seem to be living their last days. The reason for the inevitable collapse of tourism of the past will be three factors of tourism of the future. The names of these harpies guarding the entrance to the kingdom of tourism of the third millennium are: Globalization, Internet and Dumping.

Globalization

Whether we like it or not, the global integration that journalists talked so much about has happened! You and I exist only in the context of hated or adored globalization: using the Internet, traveling around the world, writing texts for global media. And hardly any of us remember that just 120 years ago the writer A.P. Chekhov took four months to travel by horse and steamship from Moscow to Sakhalin Island. Four long months, 2880 hard, off-road hours. Now any child can easily cover this same distance by air in eight hours, or exactly 360 times faster.

Skyscrapers of Hong Kong

The world has become smaller and more accessible. On the one hand, this is good - freedom of movement around the globe significantly reduces the power of the state in relation to its citizens. Some citizens, for example, having gone on tourist trips to the islands of Great Britain, do not particularly try to return from their trips, despite the fact that the travel agencies that sent them began to worry. On the other hand, globalization is also the process of transferring entire industries to regions where labor costs are cheaper. And I'm not talking about the fact that the Italian Diesel jeans your neighbor is wearing were made in China or Indonesia by a third-party contractor. I am saying that soon the entire production complex involved in the reproduction of conditions for travel and recreation will be transferred to countries where the production of a tourist product is cheap. Simply for obvious economic reasons. Accordingly, a holiday in such a place will cost less than it costs, for example, in the glorious city of Sochi. It sounds unpatriotic, but this is the homespun truth of life.

Therefore, the further you go, the more popular long-distance travel and to cheap third world countries will become. And I can already clearly see how charters will fly from Moscow to the previously inaccessible islands of Fiji, where on the island of Taveuni there is a sign of the 180th meridian, along which the international date line once passed. Or shoals of migrating Boeings will rush to the monstrously closed North Korea. Or heavenly caravans will sail to stunningly beautiful Burma. Or the wings of steel birds will carry us away to ultra-modern Hong Kong... However, what am I telling you here? Better look for your most cherished country on the world map, and figure out when you will go there - now you can. The borders are open. Globalization.

Internet

Today is Tuesday and the era of uncontrolled spread of information, as well as the monstrous growth of its mass, is upon us. This means that the product for which some travel agencies would like to receive dividends forever is no longer worth anything. All information about almost any tourist destination can now be found online. Verbal variations on the topic “which hotel is better” and offline assistance in booking a hotel room in five years will seem as rudimentary as Morse code, which disappeared with the advent of the Internet.

The Internet has become a place for processing, storing and using information resources of the modern world that has embarked on the rails of global integration. Many familiar everyday actions - such as buying airline tickets or travel packages - will soon be carried out primarily online. By the way, the winners in the end will most likely be cunning search sites that offer tourists the opportunity to book a travel service of any degree of complexity. Such a site for you “will prepare a cabin on the ship in one minute, or order a plane to arrive, or send a camel for you.” Or, as a last resort, he will connect you with the necessary companies and hotels. As Marshak’s “Cook’s Office” once did.

In addition to the fact that the Internet will instantly “give you a room in the best hotel, a warm bath and breakfast in bed,” it will provide the tourist with a choice that he would never find in the most excellent travel agency. Because the Internet is an unlimited trading platform containing billions of travel options. Trillions of opportunities to relax. Quadrillions of tours. And I believe that over time, the Internet, like a black hole, will swallow all existing individual travelers, including individually traveling quanta of light. Simply because, according to the concept of a massive body, the pull of information accumulated on the Internet will be so strong that it is unlikely that any individual traveler will be able to overcome this pull. Even if he prepares for such a turn of events in advance by carefully reading this article.

Sunset in Myanmar

Dumping

A couple of years ago, I wrote for a magazine that in the fight for the attention of a potential client, modern hoteliers demonstrate miracles of creativity. They open underwater hotels (Hydropolis Hotel in the UAE), build hotel complexes from snow (The Mammut Snow Hotel in Finland) or ice (Ice Hotel in Sweden). In addition, about ten years ago, the “astronomical trend” or “trend of discovering new stars” gained particular popularity in the hospitality industry.

As Antoine de Saint-Exupéry’s businessman said, “you need stars to be rich,” and then he was right in his own way. The more stars the hotelier had on the façade, the more expensive it was to stay at his hotel. The hotel business sharks who caught wind of this immediately began to add as many stars as they saw fit. And then they were also right in their own way. Because whose stars are they? Draws. So, the days of these stargazers are over.

After all, how was it before? The star rating, name and price of the hotel were in the eyes of the consumer a symbol of the tourist’s involvement in a closed club. Individuals were willing to pay very non-symbolic money for such symbols. I remember very well how in the winter of 1998, my colleagues in the travel business earned $15,000 in one day by sending two families on vacation to the UAE, to the recently opened and then very fashionable Jumeirah Beach Hotel. Yes, there were people in our time: heroes! These purse riches paid huge sums for travel agency managers to help them “touch luxury” and “relax in an atmosphere of exclusivity.” “The only six-star hotel in the world,” my colleagues sang to their luxury-hungry clients. And tourists from these songs, like the rats of a Hamelin piper, enchantedly opened their hearts and wallets to new impressions.

Now, with the advent of the third millennium, the happy days of travel agency workers and their possible cosmic profits will forever be a thing of the past. Because from today we will all live according to new rules, without any cheating “luxury” and “exclusivity”. And the point is not that smart consumers in the era of modern tourism cannot be deceived by card tricks in the form of the “luxury” of gray cement walls, which resourceful entrepreneurs are trying to pass off as masterpieces of design art. It’s just that very soon consumers will understand that the main product in modern tourism has become His Majesty the Tourist himself. His loyalty. His attention. Its time. And the money... His Majesty, with the highest royal permission, will give you money for the trip in as much as he deems necessary.

As soon as this understanding becomes universal, the consumer will begin to dictate his terms to tourism. Although, to be honest, these conditions are already known: good quality services at the lowest possible price, or better yet, free of charge. And no matter how sad and fantastic it may sound, these conditions will sooner or later have to be accepted. Because there are already markets where tourism plays by the rules of the new era. Well, those who cannot accept these rules will spend the rest of their days searching for lost thoughtless money destroyers (UBUD). Which, if discovered, it will be possible to sell at a high price the stale myth about the “bewitching colors of the hospitality of a ten-star hotel.” And while representatives of the relict species of the Archaic Client, Instantly Giving Money (the so-called KAMODs) will listen to these fables, the dark sun of General Inevitable Dumping will stand above the fictional galaxies of hotel constellations. Dumping, born of a new formation of tourists. A new biological species - the Traveling Man.

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Analysis of international tourism development trends allows:

    identify those countries and regions where it is increasing and those where it is decreasing;

    explain the reasons for the large differences in the geographical distribution of tourist flows and tourism income;

    identify countries where it has great potential to become an important element of economic development.

The main statistical indicator of international tourism is the total number of foreign arrivals in all countries of the world during a calendar year. In 2000, more than 697 million tourists visited foreign countries, and revenues from international tourism (excluding income from international transport) exceeded $476 billion. USA (Table 13.1).

Table 13.1

Dynamics of international tourist arrivals and tourism receipts

Number of arrivals, million tourists

Average annual changes, %

Receipts from tourism, billion dollars.

Average annual changes, %

Despite short-term fluctuations in certain periods, the development of international tourism is characterized by stable dynamic growth. It should be noted that revenues from it are generally characterized by a higher rate than the number of tourist arrivals. This is largely due to rising prices for tourism services such as

due to an increase in their quality and a partial shift in international tourism flows to countries with higher prices and service standards (Western Europe, North America, Japan).

The intensive development of international tourism is based on the following prerequisites:

    economic and social progress, especially in industrialized countries, which has made it possible to significantly increase the level of wages and pensions, as well as increase the duration of vacations for the population of these countries;

    improving means of transport, speeding up and reducing the cost of transporting tourists as a result;

    weakening of customs, currency restrictions, border formalities, as well as their abolition, in particular, between EU countries;

    creation of a powerful tourism industry;

    significant growth in business travel.

The main tourist flows in the world are concentrated in Europe, North America, East Asia and the Pacific region.

As for tourist travel between regions, the leading flows are between America and Europe, Europe and East Asia, Europe and the Middle East, East Asia and America, East Asia and Europe.

International tourism is distributed extremely unevenly, which is primarily explained by different levels of socio-economic development of individual countries and regions. In the global tourism market, Europe stands out noticeably (403 million arrivals in 2000), accounting for approximately 58% of all tourists. This region is very popular both among Europeans themselves and among residents of the USA and Canada. The second position has been occupied by America for many years (more than 135 million arrivals in 2000). Europe and America, especially North America, are the main tourist macro-regions (they account for about 78% of all arrivals in the world).

The regional dynamics of international tourism also have significant differences. With an overall more than 10-fold increase in tourist arrivals in the world between 1960 and 2000.

to the world average, indicators are typical for Europe and America (6.6 and 5.9% per year, respectively).

The most dynamically developing macro-region is Asia and Oceania, where the growth rate of tourist arrivals in some years is expressed in double digits (for example, in 2000 - 14.5%). Some reduction in tourist activity in this region in 1997-1998. was associated with the global economic crisis. But since 1999, the region has overcome its consequences, as evidenced by the indicators of the number of tourist arrivals (1999 - 94 million, 2000 - 108 million people). At the same time, intraregional tourism is constantly increasing. Residents of Europe and the American continent are showing great interest in traveling to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.

The African macroregion and the Middle East, whose attendance is growing relatively quickly with low absolute values ​​of arrivals, do not have a significant impact on the dynamics of international tourism.

The uneven growth rate of international tourism has led to a change in its regional structure. If in the 50-60s. XX century the share of Europe and North America was more than 80%, then by 2000 their share decreased to 78% with a significant increase in the share of the Asia-Pacific region (from 3.2% in 1970 to 15.55% in 2000 ) and some stabilization of the situation in other regions of the world.

Taking into account the pace and rapid dynamics of economic development of the Asia-Pacific region (Japan, China and other “newly industrialized countries”), the degree of concentration of demographic potential and population dynamics in the largest countries (China, India, Indonesia, etc.), as well as the leading the pace of development of international tourism, it should be expected that in the first half of the 21st century. The importance of this region will increase. This is evidenced by the forecast estimates of the WTO (Table 13.2).

As can be seen from the table, in 2020 the number of tourist arrivals will amount to 1 billion 603 million people. At the same time, Europe will retain its dominant position (44.7% of the total number of arrivals), the Asia-Pacific region will take second place (27.3%) > ahead of America, which traditionally occupied this position (17.7%).

Table 13.2

Forecast of international tourist arrivals in the world and by region (million people)

East Asia/Pacific

Middle East

South Asia

The WTO in its classification identifies countries that are the main suppliers of tourists (Germany, USA, Japan, Great Britain, France, Italy, Austria, the Netherlands, Canada), and countries that mainly receive tourists (Table 13.3).

Leading countries for international tourist arrivals in 2000

Table 13.3

Tourist arrivals, million people

UK Russia 1

Germany

Total for 10 countries

_______________________________

1 WTO data does not coincide with the data of the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation.

According to WTO forecasts, in 2020 the leader in world tourism in terms of the number of tourist arrivals will be China (Table 13.4), and in terms of outbound tourists - Germany (Table 13.5).

Leading countries for international tourist arrivals in 2020

Table 13.4

Tourist arrivals, million people

Share in total global volume, %

United Kingdom

Total for 10 countries

Leading countries for outbound tourists in 2020

Table 13.5

Tourist departures, million people.

Share in total global volume, %

Germany

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Total for 10 countries

Along with tourist flows, the most important characteristics of international tourism are tourist income and expenses. They represent the cost estimates of tourism necessary to study its impact on the national economy, in particular the country’s balance of payments.

In 2001, international tourist spending (excluding international transport) amounted to $476.11 billion. USA. Most of them (more than 248 billion) are in Europe. Europeans spend as much on travel as tourists from all other regions combined. America is in second place, followed by the Asia-Pacific region.

The main expenses for international tourism, according to the WTO, are borne by the population of industrialized countries, mainly the USA, Germany, Great Britain and Japan (Table 13.6). These countries account for about a third of all global tourism spending. In addition to them, France, Italy and China play a significant role in the formation of international tourist expenditures, their magnitude and structure.

Table 13.6

Leading countries in international tourism expenditures (excluding international transport) in 2000

Share in total world

billion dollars USA

volume, %

Germany

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Total for 10 countries

Receipts from international tourism are concentrated in a group of developed countries in North America (USA, Canada) and Western Europe (France, Great Britain, Germany), Mediterranean (Spain, Italy) and Alpine (Austria, Switzerland) countries. They account for about half of global income from international tourism.

The United States has been the long-term leader in this regard (Table 13.7). According to the WTO, in 2000, receipts from international tourism in this country were 3.2 times higher than their volume in Spain and France, which occupy the next lines in this table. China burst into the top ten, moving from 25th place in 1990 to 7th place in 2000. Among the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the best results are demonstrated by Poland (6.1 billion US dollars) and the Czech Republic (3 .6 billion).

Table 13.7

Leading countries in terms of income from international tourism (excluding income from international transport) in 2000

Revenues, billion dollars

Share in total global volume, %

United Kingdom

Germany

Australia

Total for 10 countries

Analysis of cost indicators of tourism profitability indicates its transformation into one of the leading sectors of the world economy. In this regard, most states, understanding

the enormous importance of developing tourism in their countries, allocates substantial funds to national tourism administrations to promote the national tourism product. The leader here is Israel - more than $200 million. USA annually. The USA and China are allocating $70 million for these purposes. USA.

The volume of receipts from international tourism is widely used to assess the profitability of a tourist destination. However, income per arrival and tourism income per capita are more informative. Research conducted by the WTO shows that revenue per arrival averages $708. USA. However, the amount of revenue varies significantly among individual countries. Thus, income from total arrivals is lower in states (Canada, Mexico) that have a common land border with countries that supply tourists (in this case, the USA). A high level of income from arrivals is observed in countries that are geographically remote from large outbound tourism markets, are characterized by a high cost of living, or are focused on elite tourism.

An important indicator reflecting the state of the economy in general and tourism in particular is the country’s balance of payments (Table 13.8).

Table 13.8

Balance of payments of some countries under the item “Tourism” in 2000 (billion US dollars)

Germany

United Kingdom

Export of tourism services (service to foreign tourists in the country) is an integral part of the total export of goods and services, and expenditures on international tourism by citizens of the country have a direct impact on the volume of imports associated with the outflow of foreign currency funds abroad. Accordingly, measures taken to attract foreign tourists to a particular country strengthen its economy as a whole, and the dynamics of the development of the balance of payments under the item “Tourism” can be considered one of the indicators of the stable development of the state’s economy.

According to WTO forecasts, income from international tourism is expected to increase in the future: up to $922 billion. USA in 2010 and up to 2 trillion dollars. in 2020. Tourist spending on one trip will also increase: from 682 dollars. USA in 2000 to 1248 dollars. in 2020

The following main trends will appear in the development of international tourism at the beginning of the third millennium:

    logical, economic, cultural and educational, business, thematic, adventure tourism and cruises will receive intensive development;

    Fierce competition will require the tourism industry to improve the quality of services provided;

    the market will experience polarization of consumer preferences;

    Two categories of the population will travel more actively than others: older people and young people;

    intensive development of information technology can lead to a reduction in traditional sales channels for tourism products;

    the economically active population will increasingly prefer individual tourism;

    travel expenses in the family budget will increase faster than other expense items;

    Additional services and so-called worry-free trips will become increasingly important in shaping the market attractiveness of a tourism product;

    The globalization of the world economy will lead to the acceleration of the creation of corporations, alliances and other

forms of associations, concentration of investments, mergers and cooperation of participants in the tourism market. Thus, international tourism in the third millennium will become an important factor in the development of humanity in general and the world economy in particular.

DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM UNTIL 2030

The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) has compiled a forecast for the development of international tourism until 2030, and also released some interesting statistics on the state of tourism in past decades. UNWTO) is the specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting safe, sustainable and accessible tourism. UNWTO serves as the Global Forum for Tourism Policy and the Development of Tourism Know-How.

Here are the main points of this forecast.

Tourism is the key to development, prosperity and well-being. An increasing number of destinations are opening up and investing in tourism, making tourism a major driver of socio-economic progress through export earnings, job and enterprise creation, and infrastructure development.

Over the past six decades, tourism has experienced further expansion and diversification, becoming one of the largest and fastest growing economic sectors in the world. In addition to the traditional favorites of Europe and North America, many new destinations have emerged.
Despite periodic shocks, international tourist visits have shown almost continuous growth - from 25 million in 1950 to 278 million in 1980, 528 million in 1995 and 1035 million in 2012.

According to UNWTO long-term forecasts, international tourism will grow by 3.3% per year between 2010 and 2030, reaching 1.8 billion by 2030. Between 2010 and 2030, growth in emerging markets (+4.4% per annum) is expected to double the rate in advanced economies (2.2% per annum). Market share of emerging economies has increased from 30% in 1980 to 47% in 2012 and is expected to reach 57% by 2030, equivalent to more than one billion international tourist visits. Key indicators of world tourism: 9% of world GDP, 1 in 11 jobs, $1.3 trillion in exports, 6% of world exports, from 25 million foreign tourists in 1950 to 1035 million in 2012, from 5 to 6 billion domestic tourists, 18 billion foreign tourists - forecast for 2030.

The forecasts compiled by the World Tourism Organization are a good source for studying the global tourism sector. In particular, Figure 7.1 shows that international tourist arrivals worldwide will increase to 661 million people in 2000, to 937 million in 2010. For 1990-2010 the number of tourists in the world will double. Annual growth rate of world tourism in 1990-2000. will be 3.8%, and in 2000-2010. – 3.5%.

WTO forecasts for regional trends show that the established changes in the distribution of tourist flows between regions will continue in the forecast period. The shares of the European and American regions will decrease by 2010, while the share of East Asia and the Pacific will increase significantly. It should be noted that the projected share of BAT will increase as much as the share of Europe will decrease – by 17.3%. Projected annual growth rate 1990-2000 will be 2.7% for Europe and 6.8% for BAT (Table 2.1). In other regions of the world, forecasts for the same period show a slight increase: in South Asia - 6.1%, in Africa - 5%, in the Middle East - 4%.

Table 2.1. Average annual growth rate of tourists by region, %

Period (years)in the worldEuropeAmericaVAT
1950-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 9,95,74,73,83,5 10,95,34,12,72,5 9,93,84,34,63,5 18,114,79,66,86,5

Forecast for the European region for 1990-2000. – pessimistic – with a growth rate of 2.7% per year, for 2000-2010. – only 2.5%, which shows that the share of European countries in world tourism will continue to decline. According to the same forecast, the number of tourists arriving in Europe will increase by 2000 to 372 million people, and by 2010 - to 476 million (Fig. 2.2).

The relative decline in growth rates may be the reason why Europe is heavily dependent on certain types of tourism. This especially applies to the coastal areas of the Mediterranean Sea. Tourism growth trends and forecasts in the Americas region show, in particular, significant growth in 1995-2000. – 5.1% more than the world average – 4.4%. Forecast until 2010 assumes a slight decline in growth rates, but it will remain equal to the world average (perhaps even more). The number of tourists arriving in the Americas region will increase by 2000 to 147 million people, and by 2010 to 207 million (Fig. 2.3).

The initial sub-regional distribution of tourist arrivals shows that North America will remain dominant in the Americas region, with arrivals to the Caribbean growing faster than Latin America.

The predicted rate of annual growth in tourist arrivals to BAT is 2 times higher than the world average and will amount to . 6.8%, and in 2000-2010. – 6.5%. This growth can be attributed to the expected significant increase in intra-regional tourism - from 49% in 1980 to 79% in 2010. International tourist arrivals to BAT will increase by 2000. up to 101 million people, and by 2010 – up to 190 million (Fig. 2.4). The WTO predicts that the proportions of tourism will remain stable until 2010: one quarter will come from interregional tourism and three quarters from intraregional tourism. The greatest increase in the number of tourists among tourist-generating countries will be in Japan with an annual rate of 7% until 2010, and the least in the USA (Table 2.2).

Table 2.2. Forecast of tourist arrivals worldwide from the five main generating countries in 1990-2010.

CountryNumber of arrivals, million peopleAverage annual level of change,%
1990200020101990-20002000-2010
France19,47 26,96 35,37 3,31 2,75
Germany57,19 82,84 109,17 3,77 2,80
Japan17,32 34,65 67,75 7,18 6,93
United Kingdom34,24 44,54 57,57 2,66 2,30
USA55,51 70,57 87,83 2,43 2,21
Total 183,73 259,56 357,69 3,52 3,26

After a short break, international tourism will continue to develop in the next century, despite the risk of economic downturn, as tourism demand has its own determinants. However, significant changes will occur in the distribution of tourist flows in the 21st century. unlike previous years. The growth of tourism flows to and from Southeast Asia is just beginning, and the region will surpass America and Europe in importance. Further, the main areas of world tourism will move from the Mediterranean region to the Pacific region with the growth of the air transport sector.

Tourism development, forecast

It is also undeniable that international inequality in the tourism sector is significant. To achieve equal success in the world, new approaches to promoting tourism development must be based on international cooperation. Therefore, international cooperation and agreements between the key components of tourism (hotels, transport, travel agencies) must guarantee the future development of the industry.

It will continue to recover since the crisis began in the industry. Retail sales fell 20% compared to 2016. This suggests that the middle- and low-income segment of customers, as well as migrants, continue to reduce costs and prefer cheaper modes of travel, such as train or bus, to air tickets. The depth of bookings for , as well as the frequency and duration of bookings, has decreased.

Online ticket sales remained at 2016 levels, and the average ticket price fell 2%. However, this was also influenced by the active growth in sales of low-cost Pobeda airline tickets and the tariff policy of competing airlines in these directions, as well as the emergence of fares without baggage, which, of course, caused increased competition and a general decrease in air ticket prices in 2017.

Also, according to the expert, there is a possibility that resort Egypt (in particular, Hurghada) will be opened for charter air carriers, and tour operators will begin to create packages in the first quarter of this year.

“Based on the sales of Svyaznoy Travel in 2017, we see that the decline in exchange rates has become one of the stimulating factors for the surge in interest in short trips. Many people took advantage of reduced rates and favorable airline offers and actively traveled by plane. Considering that in 2018 the number of trips convenient for planning this kind of trip increased, we also expect an increase on pre-holiday dates,” - he says.

If we talk about summer destinations, it is difficult for an independent traveler to plan a trip to Crimea. Airfare prices are quite high, railway communication is organized, but still with transfers - trains go from Russian cities to Krasnodar or Anapa, then passengers are offered a bus transfer. Also, a significant portion of independent travelers are deterred by the lack of high-quality online hotel booking services. If prices in Crimea remain at the same level, then in 2018 we can expect an even greater drop, which could become critical for the resort in relation to its further development.

“We plan to add a new function “price dynamics” to all Svyaznoy Travel resources with the ability to track price changes in the direction of interest. We also plan to develop the functionality of Aviabot (Facebook bot), which can now search for trips under a client’s specified budget, as well as issue a ticket refund. It is also planned to add a new supplier for train tickets, which will make our offer even more profitable, as well as search for train tickets in both directions (round trip).

We are also actively working to expand the list of airlines that integrate directly (for example, through the NDC protocol), which allows us to improve our price offer and more effectively offer additional services that are often not always available when issuing an air ticket using GDS systems. In December 2017, we added foreign offers to our website. The testing was successful, and we plan to develop this innovation further,” - said the speaker.

In the first quarter of this year, the company will also update its line of insurance products, making them more interesting and profitable for the client. This applies to products for baggage and flight delays, where payment will occur immediately upon the occurrence of a risk without providing checks, certificates and similar documents that confirm financial losses.

“There is also a discussion in the tourism community about the use of blockchain technology for mutual settlements between the airline and the agent. However, at this stage it is too early to say that this technology will find practical use in the near future, since the agent does not enter into an agreement with third parties and actually bears the risks associated with the client’s ability to cancel the transaction through the bank after issuing the ticket.

At the moment, there are no projects on the tourism market using blockchain technology that could change the industry and improve business processes,” - the expert noted.