There are quite a lot of rumors going around, and each expert or analyst has their own point of view.
Say that if the annual rate falls from 12% to 8.6% and customers flock to the bank- it is forbidden. After all, no matter how much the lender minimizes its rate, potential borrowers must at least be able to pay directly for the square meters purchased, which is not always possible.
Mortgage interest rates will decrease in 2015
The political life of our country constantly wants to improve our communal and housing conditions, sometimes without paying attention to the real effectiveness of its actions. In order for a family to take out a mortgage, it must at least be able to pay for the loan itself, but if one square meter of living space costs several salaries, then this solution will naturally be beyond the means of ordinary citizens.
The 2015 interest rate is set to decrease due to the fact that a new line of insurance for borrowers and lenders is being introduced. This is due to the precarious economic situation and unstable exchange rates. Neither party can take responsibility for the future repayment period, the level of stable income, etc. For the bank, the 2015 interest rate will be reduced, since a new insurance event is being introduced if, if the money is not repaid, the lender is forced to sell the collateral, but the price will obviously fall.
The amount of such an insured event is equal to 10% of the value of the real estate. Therefore, according to the new amended legislation, the borrower will be able to receive the maximum amount with a pledge of not 80%, but 90%. For the borrower, the 2015 interest rate will not only be lower, but he will also receive insurance in the event that the value of the collateral no longer pays off the price of the entire loan or the amount of money from the sale of real estate is not enough to cover the debt. In this case, the client’s debt obligation ceases to be valid and an insured event occurs.
If the changes to the mortgage lending law are successfully implemented, the benefits will be felt on both sides. The bank will stop being so afraid of and its risks and low fees for its services will be able to attract even more clients. By introducing such a program, the government expects that the total volume of mortgages in 2015 will increase by 740 thousand.
Flexible conditions in pursuit of the client
Although the 2015 interest rate is still very far from the same figure in developed countries (3-4%), but still 8.6% is not 13%. And if there are no global macroeconomic shocks during the year, then the issuance of mortgage products will increase. The interest rate on the loan in 2015 will be accompanied by more flexible and favorable lending conditions. The changes will reduce the share of the down payment - this will be a key point in housing affordability.
The new conditions will make it possible to purchase real estate even without a down payment; the reduction in the rate itself will complement the reduction in the cost of bank mortgage lending. All this can have a positive impact on the housing well-being of our population, providing even more necessary real estate.
The difficult economic situation in the country entails a deterioration in living conditions for citizens. Unemployment is growing, wages are falling and, accordingly, the overdue debt of Russians on previously taken out loans is increasing. Statisticians noted that the credit debt of individuals over the past year (2014) increased by almost 45% and this is not the limit. The share of problem loans is increasing every day. Already today, on average, each debtor has more than one outstanding loan, the maximum figure is up to seventeen problem loans.
What you need to know to avoid becoming a debtor
Do not take out a loan if you are not confident in your financial situation. If you dream of a new car, the price of which is many times higher than your income, it is better to think it over carefully - such a loan is classified as impractical. Also, you should not take out loans during this period without proof of income. The rates for them will be many times higher.
If you decide to take out a loan, take it in the currency in which you have income.
Targeted loans are considered the most profitable; their rates are lower than consumer loans.
If a delay occurs, you should not delay time, but it is better to immediately contact the bank with a detailed explanation of the reasons for the debt. In this case, you can try to carry out the refinancing procedure or ask the bank to change the parameters of the loan taken.
But all these rules are more suitable for new borrowers, i.e. those who are just thinking about taking out a loan. And if you have already taken out a loan before and in the current situation you cannot repay it, what should you do in this case?
We declare ourselves bankrupt
This is exactly the way out of the situation that is being offered to citizens in the near future, namely from July of this year.
According to the new bill, if a citizen cannot pay a loan, he has the right to go to court, writing a statement declaring himself bankrupt. The borrower's overdue debt must be at least 500,000 rubles and no payments have been made within the last three months. However, this does not mean that the client has a loan debt of five hundred thousand. This amount includes not only loan debts. This could also include utility debts or unpaid child support.
As a result of such an operation (obtaining bankruptcy), debtors will be given a deferment on debt repayment for three years if they have a stable income. The bank offers such a client an installment plan with a phased payment schedule. The plan for such a restructuring will be discussed at a meeting of creditors and approved by a court decision. The court will take into account the current situation, the marital status of the borrower, the reasons why he cannot pay debts, the presence of minor children or other dependents.
If the debtor does not have regular income that allows him to pay the debt, the court declares him bankrupt and his property will be put up for auction. And here comes an important point. If after the sale of the property there are not enough funds to repay the debt, it will still be considered repaid. And a person declared bankrupt is freed from further claims and demands of the creditor.
Thanks to the new law, the debtor’s rehabilitation procedure will take place. Experts believe that this is the social significance of the law, which allows one to clear one’s debts.
However, there is also a not entirely pleasant aspect of this procedure. A person declared bankrupt will not be able to take out a new loan from any bank for the next five years. And many bankers believe that even after this period it will be problematic for such a person to take out a loan.
It is expected that in 2015 banks will also tighten their requirements for borrowers. Debtors will also face tougher pressure from collection agencies. In the new year, collectors will be extremely active in harassing not only the debtors themselves, but also contacting them at work, reporting debts on social networks, and harassing guarantors and relatives.
Debtors will be limited in their right to travel abroad. Moreover, even if you repay the debt in full, the restriction will be lifted only after thirty days.
The conclusion suggests itself - you should not take out a loan thoughtlessly, much less deliberately delay payments on it. In the event of force majeure, it is better to immediately contact the bank and jointly look for compromises and ways out of the current situation.
Today, all leading business publications wrote that the Central Bank regulated interest rates on a number of loans in 2015. And since this article was written in mid-November 2014, this means that banks will be able to raise interest rates on loans for no more than one and a half months, since new rules will come into force in 2015. From January 1, a number of interest rates on loans will be limited by law. The innovations will affect pawnshops, microfinance organizations, and banks.
Moreover, as the authoritative business newspaper Kommersant writes, these indicators are calculated separately for:
- banks;
- microfinance organizations (MFOs);
- credit consumer cooperatives;
- agricultural credit consumer cooperatives;
- pawnshops.
Thus, the Central Bank of Russia began to regulate the full cost of the loan, including interest rates, insurance and all commissions. The limitation of this parameter is introduced by the corresponding amendments to the law “On Consumer Loans”, which were adopted about a year ago at the end of 2013.
The newspaper notes that the new amendments were adopted quite a long time ago, but there were no specific absolute values of the maximum lending rates for the full cost of the loan.
Thus, banks that issue consumer loans with interest rates higher than the required rate risk losing their license or receiving some other sanctions from the regulator.
The regulator notes that the spread of interest rates is very wide among different credit institutions. Therefore, the maximum interest rates on loans from January 1, 2015 will also be uneven depending on the type of loan and the loan term. What numbers can consumers expect from the new year?
For example, loans issued in shopping centers and retail chains, the maximum value of the total cost of the loan will range from 34.688% to 59.939%, depending on the loan amount and loan term. Car loans with a car as collateral cannot cost more than 20.32-31.215%. Non-targeted consumer loans in their maximum values will range from 21.381 to 46.795%.
As for microfinance institutions, the limit values of the PSC are 914.785%. Such a high bar is typical for small payday loans, which traditionally have very high interest rates.
The critical value of the PSC for pawnshops will be 86.117% (collateral is a car) and 233.19% per annum if something else is used as collateral.
Total loan value limits will be updated quarterly.
Credit card limits will range from 22.415% to 34.616%.
According to the site's editors, many banks will be forced to reconsider interest rates on their offers. In particular, the full cost of the loan for a mobile phone taken out on a Renaissance loan is 69.2%, which significantly exceeds the maximum level allowed since January 1, 2015 of 54.939%.
Banks will no longer be able to charge clients too much money in the form of interest, which will generally have a positive impact on the lending market. Although loan rates are still very high.
Loans will be issued in the new year on January 12. Before this date, the entire banking system of the country (with the exception of ATMs) took a holiday break. At what rates will it be possible to get a loan in 2015?
Cost of loan in 2015
Experts for the most part report an increase in the price of loans in 2015. This was mainly due to the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia to 17%. Accordingly, the cost of loans should increase proportionally. The situation is also affected by the crisis situation in the economy, external and internal sanctions, as well as other factors.
It is worth noting that back in 2013, overdue loans already reached 15%. Therefore, the expansion of lending in 2014 and the increase in loan rates in 2015 will lead to an increase in this indicator.
The decrease in household incomes has, in fact, led to exceeding a critical level. According to research, borrowers spend over 50% of their total income on loan payments.
Citizens who intend to take out a loan in 2015 find themselves in much less favorable conditions than borrowers who took out loans in 2013–2014. This is influenced by negative economic trends, a decrease in income, rising prices, a fall in the ruble exchange rate and a significant increase in the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
The average loan rates in 2015 have now reached:
- almost 28% per annum for amounts up to 500 thousand rubles with a loan term of three months;
- almost 24% for a loan amount of up to 3 million rubles.
Mortgage loans have soared to an exorbitant 30%, although in some banks a mortgage loan can still be obtained at 13–17%. For example, the rate is:
- in Promsvyazbank - 16.5%;
- in Sudostroitelny - 16.9%;
- at Renaissance Credit Bank - 15.9%;
- in Ergobank it’s 13%.
Many banks are waiting to see how larger financial institutions will behave, in particular, Sberbank, Raiffeisenbank, Alfa Bank or VTB24.
Sberbank loan rates 2015
Sberbank, in particular, stated that it would minimally turn to the funds of the Central Bank of Russia due to its unpredictability. New course: try to attract more funds from the population by increasing interest on deposits. In addition, the bank's management decided to limit its earnings by reducing the margin (the difference between loan rates and the deposit interest rate). If earlier the figure was 6%, then from now on it will drop to 5%.
It is worth noting that such a low figure is only possible for large universal banks. As for financial institutions specializing exclusively in lending, their margin is forced to be up to 25% - the risks of non-repayments and delays in payments are high.
Sberbank announced mortgage loan rates of up to 15% if:
- the loan amount will exceed 4 million rubles;
- The loan term will be up to 30 years;
- The deal will be processed through partners.
With a smaller amount, the rate will increase by only 1%, in the absence of a life and health insurance contract for the person taking the loan - by another 0.5%.
At this stage, Raiffeisenbank, VTB24 and Khanty-Mansiysk Bank can also be included in the 2015 loan rating in the mortgage industry. All of them still offer quite favorable loan rates for mortgage programs, lying in the range of 14–20%.
Sberbank itself declared its intention to continue lending to its mortgage clients even at a loss. However, some other lending programs (in particular, car loans) will still have to be closed or significantly reduced. The conditions for issuing loans will also become stricter; for example, the size of the down payment when applying for a mortgage will increase.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation announced maximum interest rates on loans
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation introduced certain restrictions on certain loans at the legislative level from January 1, 2015. This innovation will primarily affect banks and credit institutions.
That is, in 2015, the Central Bank of Russia began to regulate the full cost of loans in 2015. In addition to the interest rate, it also includes insurance with commissions. Banks that begin to issue loans at rates that are inflated relative to this value may be subject to penalties or even lose their license.
The marginal rate will be calculated based on the market average plus another third. In general, the limit values will vary depending on the type of loan, its volume and term.
- Loans issued by commercial establishments cannot exceed a maximum rate of 60%.
- The maximum for a car loan with a car as collateral is set at 31%.
- Consumer loans will be limited to a rate of 46.8%.
- The maximum rate for short-term payday loans was limited to 915%.
- For pawnshops, the maximum will be 86% for auto collateral and 233% for other collateral.
- The maximum threshold for credit cards is set at up to 34.6%.
As a result, this innovation will force banks to reduce some of the artificially high rates, although the published interest rates are still quite high. The maximum values of the total interest rate on loans in 2015 will be adjusted quarterly.
Will rates on previously issued loans increase?
This question worries many borrowers who took out their loans before 2015. First of all, those citizens who have entered into loan agreements with a “floating” rate have a reason to worry. With this type of lending, the current rate is tied to the refinancing indicator of the Central Bank of Russia. It changes depending on his fluctuations.
Due to the increase in the refinancing rate to 17%, loan rates may also increase. However, if the Central Bank revises the current rate downwards in the first or second quarter of 2015, then interest rates will also decrease.
Expert opinions, forecasts and expectations
The situation now is such that the previously considered high lending rate of 20%, in the new year 2015, with the Central Bank key rate of 17%, can be considered almost preferential. The increase in loan rates in 2015, according to experts, will be widespread. Those who did not have time to take out loans at the “old” interest rates will be placed in more difficult conditions.
For example, if the rate for car loans previously started at 16%, now it starts at 21–22% - the same 17% of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation plus the bank’s “benefit”, which in most cases is 4–10%.
According to experts, we cannot avoid the rise in prices of mortgage loans in 2015. The average mortgage loan rate in 2015 began to grow steadily since mid-2014 and will continue to grow in 2015.
The most optimistic forecasts in this area are 13–16%, while skeptics predict 15–17%. True, experts point out that the final rate will depend on a number of parameters: down payment, loan term, payment schedule and, of course, on the choice of the creditor bank.
The conditions under which banks will be willing to issue loans will also become more severe. For example, banks will pay special attention to the client’s income, the time of his continuous work in the last place, the documented amount of income, a good credit history, etc. High interest rates on loans in 2015 will make not only borrowers, but also bankers think twice.
- If you nevertheless decide to take out a loan in 2015 (for example, circumstances force you to do this), we advise you to read the text of the loan agreement especially carefully. Despite the fact that the contract itself can be quite voluminous, and the conditions for studying it are not entirely suitable.
- We strongly recommend that you pay special attention to the cash payment schedule. It would be useful to use a calculator and calculate whether the conditions offered to you correspond to those stated earlier.
- Pay attention to the accuracy of the definitions of “interest rate” or “overpayment”, commissions and other controversial issues, for example, the imposition of unnecessary insurance obligations.
- Before applying for a loan, for example, for the same household appliances, carefully study all the offers on the market and choose the most optimal one for yourself. Try to find out comparative data from consultants; they usually have the necessary information.
The sample includes TOP 30 banks. The data is presented without taking into account the transactions of Sberbank PJSC due to the later deadline for reporting on forms 0409128 “Data on weighted average interest rates on funds provided by a credit institution” and 0409129 “Data on weighted average interest rates on funds attracted by a credit institution” in accordance with the Bank’s Directive Russia dated November 12, 2009 No. 2332-U “On the list, forms and procedure for compiling and submitting reporting forms for credit institutions to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation” and are intended for operational analysis of the situation in the credit and deposit markets.
Loans for individuals personsLegal loans personsPhysical deposits persons Legal deposits persons
| Month | Average loan rate | Average rate over 1 year |
| January | 29,28% | 22,63% |
| February | 28,94% | 23,52% |
| March | 27,44% | 24,55% |
| April | 26,43% | 22,53% |
| May | 29,16% | 21,68% |
| June | 27,00% | 20,44% |
| July | 26,89% | 20,13% |
| August | 26,11% | 19,55% |
| September | 25,24% | 19,22% |
| October | 25,71% | 19,12% |
| November | 25,50% | 18,71% |
| Month | Up to 1 year (including “on demand”) | Including SMEs | For all loans over 1 year | Including SMEs |
| January | 19,82% | 18,91% | 17,35% | 18,22% |
| February | 18,34% | 19,06% | 16,82% | 17,87% |
| March | 17,91% | 19,16% | 17,00% | 17,58% |
| April | 17,19% | 18,96% | 16,04% | 17,86% |
| May | 16,05% | 18,62% | 16,51% | 17,82% |
| June | 15,62% | 18,22% | 15,85% | 17,10% |
| July | 14,70% | 17,78% | 15,77% | 17,29% |
| August | 14,33% | 17,55% | 14,97% | 16,63% |
| September | 14,03% | 17,17% | 15,06% | 16,29% |
| October | 13,72% | 17,12% | 14,55% | 15,52% |
| November | 13,83% | 16,88% | 14,74% | 16,47% |
| Month | Demand deposits | Up to 1 year without “on demand” | Up to 1 year, including “on demand” | Over 1 year |
| January | 5,81% | 15,70% | 14,70% | 15,01% |
| February | 4,75% | 14,23% | 13,05% | 15,33% |
| March | 3,63% | 13,31% | 12,41% | 12,55% |
| April | 3,00% | 12,85% | 11,89% | 12,11% |
| May | 2,17% | 11,96% | 10,87% | 11,72% |
| June | 2,30% | 11,41% | 10,41% | 11,25% |
| July | 1,69% | 10,66% | 9,78% | 10,84% |
| August | 2,10% | 10,22% | 9,29% | 10,45% |
| September | 2,11% | 9,91% | 9,13% | 10,29% |
| October | 1,98% | 9,82% | 9,14% | 10,08% |
| November | 2,22% | 9,63% | 8,96% | 10,15% |
| Month | Average deposit rateup to 1 year (including “on demand”) | Average rate over 1 year |
| January | 15,21% | 13,64% |
| February | 13,48% | 13,78% |
| March | 13,30% | 13,17% |
| April | 12,88% | 12,45% |
| May | 11,49% | 11,69% |
| June | 11,05% | 11,33% |
| July | 10,38% | 11,73% |
| August | 9,83% | 10,50% |
| September | 9,94% | 10,99% |
| October | 9,99% | 10,87% |
| November | 10,13% | 9,97% |
Sberbank data was not used in the calculations. They would improve the data, because... all rates in Sberbank are below these averages, which is not surprising. Not so long ago, the profit of our entire banking system for 9 months of 2015 consisted of the profit of his bank. They are doing well, but many others are not doing so well, especially small credit institutions that attract money from the population at a cost of 20-25% more than indicated in the tables. This is all due to lack of liquidity. In January 2015, a number of banks attracted money at 20% per annum, but here the average “hospital temperature”, especially since the sample included banks only from the TOP-30, they raised rates less aggressively.
Having looked at all the data, the attentive reader will see that there is a trend towards lower rates, although for loans it is not as intense as for deposits. Despite the difficult year, the deposit market for both legal entities and individuals grew by more than 20%.
| date | Ruble deposits of legal entities. persons, trillion rubles | Foreign currency deposits of legal entities. persons, trillion rubles | Ruble deposits of individuals. persons, trillion rubles | Foreign currency deposits of individuals persons, trillion rubles |
| 01.01.2014 | 5,598 | 2,298 | 13,985 | 2,953 |
| 01.02.2014 | 5,587 | 2,430 | 13,424 | 3,251 |
| 01.03.2014 | 5,821 | 2,774 | 13,496 | 3,390 |
| 01.04.2014 | 5,737 | 2,830 | 13,202 | 3,352 |
| 01.05.2014 | 6,237 | 2,858 | 13,469 | 3,326 |
| 01.06.2014 | 6,469 | 2,921 | 13,503 | 3,235 |
| 01.07.2014 | 6,187 | 2,804 | 13,678 | 3,176 |
| 01.08.2014 | 6,304 | 2,742 | 13,790 | 3,423 |
| 01.09.2014 | 6,449 | 2,818 | 13,923 | 3,451 |
| 01.10.2014 | 6,344 | 3,170 | 13,855 | 3,524 |
| 01.11.2014 | 6,800 | 3,649 | 13,822 | 3,971 |
| 01.12.2014 | 6,710 | 4,131 | 13,778 | 4,426 |
| 01.01.2015 | 6,566 | 4,586 | 13,699 | 4,983 |
| 01.02.2015 | 6,800 | 5,393 | 13,511 | 5,981 |
| 01.03.2015 | 6,354 | 5,020 | 13,883 | 5,330 |
| 01.04.2015 | 6,401 | 4,646 | 14,046 | 5,146 |
| 01.05.2015 | 6,733 | 4,106 | 14,502 | 4,738 |
| 01.06.2015 | 6,610 | 4,041 | 14,560 | 4,913 |
| 01.07.2015 | 6,446 | 4,408 | 14,793 | 5,194 |
| 01.08.2015 | 6,750 | 4,783 | 14,969 | 5,512 |
| 01.09.2015 | 6,773 | 5,453 | 14,989 | 6,246 |
| 01.10.2015 | 7,022 | 5,505 | 15,066 | 6,261 |
| 01.11.2015 | 7,508 | 5,365 | 15,145 | 6,113 |
| 01.12.2015 | 7,394 | 5,620 | 15,338 | 6,242 |
This indicates the presence of free money, on which investors want to receive interest that has become more interesting. Those. the negative situation in the economy, which has caused an increase in rates, on the one hand allows citizens to earn money (although this is also a big question, since all these increased interest rates are compensated by increased costs in the future), on the other hand, this illusory opportunity reduces business and investment activity. Double punch. What does this mean - negative events in the economy give rise to others and sum up the effect. Therefore, profitable deposits will still come back to haunt you. But let's not talk about that.
I was pleased with the dynamics of foreign currency deposits. Over 2 years, growth by 120%. Still, you can’t fool people, there are many experienced people who understand that in the long run, the “buy and hold” dollar model works.
Loans, rates seem to be acceptable, but 1 out of 10 companies that apply receives a loan. The situation is better with car loans, commodity loans are also issued, but consumer loans have also dropped significantly. By and large, lending works at half capacity, or even worse. From this it becomes clear that banks are in no hurry to give away the money they raised, but are instead solving their own problems.
The entire banking system has global problems. When the ruble weakens, the risks of increasing the refinancing rate increase. At the moment, raising the rate is not a very good decision for the Central Bank, but the next time the currency jumps like this, they may do it. Then all the work to stabilize the credit and money markets may go down the drain. Today, the maximum rate on deposits in commercial banks for individuals is 12.6%, and the average is around 10%. A general decrease in rates compared to December was recorded. There was a slight increase in rates compared to November, because at the end of 2015 many deposits were running out and some banks were actively attracting loans for the new year.
A further decrease in the profitability of deposits will force more and more investors to study stock market instruments, but it is hardly worth hoping for any drastic changes. The biggest problem is probably that the same is a long-term investment of money, and in conditions of constant change, it is easier to have a short-term investment. Here the explanations may be different, the author believes that in general the market is simply meager relative to the available opportunities, but the same constantly occurring changes can change, and unexpectedly, the financial preferences of citizens. A very dynamic environment, so many events happen in a week that can significantly change the balance of power, so in the current reality, forecasts are meaningless, only the correct reaction is important.
